April 2017: Update on 3-year IMF Precautionary Stand-by Arrangement (PSBA)

The EPOC met on April 11, 2017, and reviewed available results up to end-February 2017. Based on performance at end-February 2017: Jamaica is on target to meet monitored quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets under the new Precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (PSBA) with the Government of Jamaica (GOJ), which was approved by the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on November 11, 2016.

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Feeling the inflation

For many households, the grocery list each month is constant. However, from time to time, unexpected price increases push our budgets beyond what we had planned. This is as a result of inflation.
Foreign exchange values, production costs, including gas and electricity, and transportation increases all add to rising prices for consumer goods.
Inflation is the change in the prices of goods and services for the island. To achieve this number, STATIN (the Statistical Institute of Jamaica) sends out workers on a monthly basis to markets, supermarkets, hardware stores and other businesses, to collect pricing data.
The data is then compared with figures from the previous months, looking for any change. The calculation is done via the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI); it is this percentage change which represents the inflation number for a particular month.
The inflation rate in Jamaica increased to 3.6 per cent in February of this year, following a 2.6 per cent rise in the previous month.
Under the current IMF agreement, in order for Jamaica to achieve its growth targets and families to be able to set and manage budgets, an environment of certainty has to be maintained. This certainty is in the stability of prices and containment of costs. The lower the rate of inflation, the better the level of certainty in the economy. Stability is best for planning for the future and great for growth.
EPOC will monitor the level of inflation and hold the government to account as it relates to any breach of the Jamaica programme.

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Holness praises Grenada’s fiscal discipline

Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness has praised Grenada’s fiscal discipline as it implements a  homegrown structural adjustment programme with the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Holness, addressing the convention of the ruling New National Party (NNP) on Sunday, said that reducing the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio from 108 to 72 per cent in three years is a feat that has to be commended.
“From what I have read, and what has been reported, the fiscal discipline of your government has been exemplary.
“When we see that you are getting five per cent average growth – seven per cent on the high level – and this year it is reported that you will get 4.2 per cent, your economy is doing well and you should be proud,” Holness told thousands of NNP supporters.
The programme, which was backed by the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECC), has just ended with the international lending agency, complementing the government on turning the economy around and recognizing growth of 3.9 per cent with a projection of 2.5 in 2017.
The Jamaican leader said it is never easy for any country to go through a structural reform of its economy but encouraged Grenada not to give up on those reforms.
“For our economies, small island developing states, to survive in this changing world, our economies have to be more  efficient, they have to be more robust, they have to be more diverse, they have to be more resilient, and they have to be growing and growing and growing.”
He said the economic growth is “not just for the big people, they have to grow for the little people as well because economic growth starts at the root and the benefit of economic growth is that people must get jobs.”
Prime Minister Dr Keith Mitchell agreed that the country’s current economic success did not come on a whim, calling the lowering of the debt to GDP ratio a miracle.
“The growth that we have, did not come about just so. The payment of unpaid claims did not come about just so. It was the sacrifices of a lot of people; and the leadership of the team of the New National Party – your cabinet that you gave us — sisters and brothers.”
“And therefore sisters and brothers to move from 108 per cent Debt to GDP ratio to 72 per cent was miraculous,” Mitchell told party supporters gathered at the St. Andrew’s Anglican Secondary School grounds.
The Grenadian leader, who has been in the political realm for more than 32 years, said the challenge is to create jobs and create hope for the young people.
“We cannot do everything possible but we can do a lot and all of us must join hands together to help provide more hope to the young people of our country,” Mitchell said, while calling on local entrepreneurs to increase their levels of investment in the country.
“We are proud of what we are doing in our country but we wouldn’t stop with this; the march is on.”
Mitchell said the vision for the future is to “promote an economic policy that will employ and empower all our people, by expanding opportunities to all sectors of our society”.
At the convention, which was attended by other regional politicians, including Godwin Friday, political leader of the main opposition New Democratic Party of St Vincent and the Grenadines and the deputy political leader of the ruling Team Unity of St Kitts and Nevis Jonel Powell, the NNP voted unanimously to retain its executive.
Mitchell remains political leader with his senior government minister, Gregory Bowen, as chairman. Elvin Nimrod has been re-elected as deputy political leader.
[Source: The Jamaica Observer]

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Gov’t on track to meet target under the PSBA — EPOC

Following their monthly meeting on March 14, the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) is reporting that Jamaica is on target to meet monitored quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets under the Precautionary Standby Agreement (PSBA) signed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in November 2016.
The evaluation of Jamaica’s performance under the agreement was released in a recently published report by EPOC which outlined the economy’s progress at the end of January 2017.
According to the report, Jamaica’s fiscal and monetary performance remains strong with tax revenues surpassing expectations and Government expenditure being lower than anticipated.
“Given the trajectory, we believe that the GOJ will meet its quantitative targets and structural benchmarks at the end of March,” observed co-chair Keith Duncan.
The recently published report coincides with the launch of EPOC’s digital media platforms as they make an effort to increase public awareness about Jamaica’s economic performance based on the targets under the PSBA.
According to Duncan, the launch of EPOC’s digital media presence through a blog, Twitter and Facebook platforms is intended to make the information available at any time for Jamaicans.
“We are monitoring Jamaica’s plan because it is our plan for our economy and not the IMF’s, therefore we are cognizant that more persons consume information online, so we have chosen to meet them there,” said Duncan.
[Source]

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Keeping our eye on the Primary Surplus

Anyone who earns a monthly or weekly salary, and has a household to run, must consider all the regular bills that must be paid and all other expenses that must be met, even before they harbour any thought of saving or money for optional expenses, like entertainment.
The government is no different. Revenues from taxes, administrative services and other sources sum up the total earnings of the state; and strict accounting measures must be applied to determine the best money measures to pursue.
Fiscal accounts can be defined as what is left to service debt, after the government pits its revenue against its expenditure.
So, wages, social programmes spending, and general spending on maintaining the country, is taken out of revenues, and what is left is called the primary surplus.
Governments always have pre-set primary surplus targets and very few have managed to meet them. Under the current IMF agreement, the target for Jamaica’s primary surplus is 7 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). At the moment, Jamaica is set to meet this target at the next IMF review.
As explained by EPOC co-chair, Keith Duncan, there are several reforms that Jamaica must undertake, under the current arrangement. These changes include adjustments to the public sector wage bill, the system governing taxes and other critical monetary factors, all of which will push us towards our goal and meet the agreed primary surplus target.
“Our job at the EPOC continues to be to support the process of maintaining public awareness and to play an effective monitoring role. EPOC will continue to hold our Government accountable for this new economic programme, primarily as it relates to the fiscal and monetary policy commitments that we have made.”
EPOC is closely monitoring this target, as it is key to the overall performance of the nation, under the current programme.

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