The EPOC met on February 24, 2023 to review the Fiscal and Monetary Quantitative Performance indicators under the Government of Jamaica’s Economic Reform Programme. The following were key highlights noted by EPOC:

Inflation rate continues to trend downwards, ending February 2023 at 7.8% relative to 8.1% at January 2023
Tax Revenues outperformed the Third Supplemental budget
Wages and Salaries to GDP continue to breach the 9% fiscal rule and is projected to close the year at 11.4%
EPOC recommends a review of the GOJ Wages to GDP 9% fiscal rule as it continues to be breached
Net International Reserve of US$3.9B as at February 2023 remain strong
Real GDP growth of 3.4% was estimated for the October-December 2022 quarter, an indication that Real GDP has returned to pre-COVID levels and projected to close the Fiscal year at 5.1%
GOJ projects 1.6% GDP growth rate for 2023/24
Debt to GDP is projected to close the fiscal year at below 80% as Primary and Fiscal balances exceed targets
Debt to GDP is projected to fall to 74.2% in 2023/24

Communique-42-March-2023

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Jamaica’s economy continues to show signs of strong recovery; however, risks to a sustained growth path are elevated
The EPOC met on October 7, 2022 to review the Fiscal and Monetary Quantitative Performance indicators under the Government of Jamaica’s Economic Reform Programme. The following were key highlights noted by EPOC:

Inflation rate of 10.2% at August 2022 was flat relative to July 2022
The BOJ’s MPC believes that, despite the 600 bps (since October 2021) increase in policy rate to 6.50% effective September 30, 2022 and other policy actions pursued by the BOJ, conditions  have not sufficiently solidified to ensure that inflation is sustainably on a downward path.
For FY2022/23 (April-August), Revenue and Grants and the fiscal and primary balance targets outperformed budget targets
Net International Reserves of US$3.81B as at September 2022  remain robust
Real GDP growth of 4.8% was recorded for the April-June 2022 quarter and is projected to fall within the range of 2.0%-3.0% for the July-September 2022 quarter

Communique-41-October-2022

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The EPOC met on July 8, 2022 to review the Fiscal and Monetary Quantitative Performance indicators under the Governmentof Jamaica’s Economic Reform Programme.
The following were key highlights noted by EPOC:                                                   

The BOJ’s Monetary Policy Committee has signaled that the 500 basis points increase in the policy rate to 5.50%, brings it closer to that which it considers appropriate. The next policy announcement is scheduled for August 18, 2022, subject to incoming data
For FY2021/22 and April-May 2022, Revenue and Grants and the fiscal and primary balance targets outperformed budget targets
Net International Reserves of US$3.8B as at June 2022 remain robust
Real GDP growth of 8.2% was recorded for FY2021/22 and 6.4% for the January to March 2022 quarter

Communique-40-July-2022

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Update to EPOC Communique #39 released in the Jamaica Observer on Sunday, April 17, 2022.
EPOC would like to note the following changes to the “Selected GOJ Fiscal Indicators for FY2021/22 (April – February)” Table:

Total Expenditure ($625.0B) and Recurrent Expenditure ($580.9B) were within the government budgeted expenditures of $627.6B and $584.9b, respectively.
Capital Expenditure of $44.1B was above the GOJ’s capital budget of $42.9B.

This update is reflected in the document below.

Communique-39-FP-OBS-APR-2022-amended

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The EPOC met on December 3, 2021 to review the macro fiscal programme of the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) and the monetary performance of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) for the fiscal year 2021/22.
The following were key highlights noted by EPOC:

Inflationary expectations continue to increase as inflation continues to breach G0J target range of 4% – 6%
BOJ projects inflation to peak at 8-9% over the next 10 months before settling back into the GOJ target range
BOJ signals strong possibility of further policy interest rate increasesAs at October 2021, GOJ Fiscal targets are marginally behind due to missed Tax Revenue target
October 2021, Tax Revenues were noticeably behind budget primarily due to COVID-19 containment measures.
Net International Reserves remain robust at US$3.90B
Jamaica’s Vaccination level is under 20% as Jamaica prepares for the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Based on the preliminary results for performance to date through to the end of September 2021, the GOJ has met the available Quantitative Performance Targets for the GOJ ERP for end September 2021, with the exception of the Inflation target.

Communique-38-December-2021

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