News and Updates | Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC)

Explaining government (economic) policies is too important to be left to government: EPOC, EGC & CaPRI show why

Dennis Jones
I was struck by an Editorial in The Gleaner on May 23, ‘ ‘Good Initiative, Mr Duncan, But … ‘ noting (my emphasis) that Keith Duncan, co-chair of the Economic Policy Oversight Committee ‘has taken his show on the road. He is on an education exercise, going into communities, attempting to break down the seemingly arcane ideas of finance into the language of the people and show the relationship between achieving the IMF targets and people’s lives.
The Editorial noted that many more Jamaicans that would have been the case otherwise will have a better understanding of the targets the government is committed to achieving under the IMF programme. That should make for better buy-in from the nation.
But, the Editorial saw ‘a risk, should he not be careful, of the blurring of the lines between the committee’s job of monitoring performance, based on the empirical analysis of a specific set of data, and the responsibility of political leaders to enunciate policy and explain to constituents the basis on which competing priorities are resolved.’ Further, the Editorial argued ‘Mr Duncan should be wary of being perceived as usurping the role of Government. We are quite happy with policing the implementation of the programme, rather than being drawn into social engineering.’
My view is this perceived risk is that it is not that great. Many agencies and commentators can and will attempt to help others understand what government is doing, and their stipulated roles are usually kept fully in view. If there are issues in certain interpretations, part of a good democracy would be that government can express its displeasure, if it amounts to that, or conversely express its thanks because sometimes others are better at the process of explaining policies. In fact, that’s one of the key features of a free press/media. Also, government’s explanations of what it is purporting to do can often be self-serving, not least because politicians like to give the best impression of what they do, seeking to extract credit and minimize blame.
During the talk, I drew attention to the other recent attempts to explain better parts of government economic policies, as undertaken by the Economic Growth Council through its public forums, and the think tank, Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CaPRI), with its recent public forums (on the 2017-18 Budget and this week on ‘Strenthening Integrity through Innovation’). All of these events try to draw the public more closely ‘into the tent’ and be part of the dialogues that are going on.
My view mirrors that expressed by educator and advocate Carol Narcisse:
“The economic programme is not going to be successful if we the people don’t understand it, don’t participate in it, don’t think it is a good thing, don’t see how it is going to benefit us, and if we don’t have an equitable way in which to both participate and benefit from the results of it.”
I would agree, also, with the complementary view she expressed: ‘EPOC going ‘On the Corner’ is an example of participatory democracy and is an extension of its responsibility to provide oversight.’
Author: Dennis Jones

On The Corner | Right Move! – Longville Park Residents Endorse Community Forum On IMF Programme

With the crime monster claiming more than 60 lives since the start of the year in Clarendon, it would not be strange if this was cited as the biggest impediment to economic growth in the parish, but not so say some residents of Longville Park.
They say that the greatest impediment to economic growth in Jamaica is corruption and that much of this stems from unnecessary bureaucracy.
Kemeila Ewers was part of a group of residents who participated in The Gleaner’s ‘On the Corner’ series with co-chairman of the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) Keith Duncan last Wednesday, and she was adamant that corruption is a clear and present danger.
TRY AGAIN
“We face too many barriers to get fundamental things done in our own country, and it frustrates you to the point where you just give somebody a money,” declared the educator, pointing to the illicit process in which persons make back-door payments in order to acquire a driver’s licence.
“The authorities keep telling you to try again, come back in a week or a month. So, while some of them aren’t outright telling you to pay, in essence, that is the aim. So, naturally, if persons know someone who’s willing to accommodate that, they will oblige to speed up the process.

Social Development Commission Parish Manager Baldvin McKenzie makes a point at the On The Corner community forum where residents discussed the economy with EPOC Co-chair Keith Duncan.
ADDRESS FROM THE TOP
Ewers said, “However, a country like the United States, if you want to get an ID for whatever purpose, you have to go through the regular route. There’s no back door but the bureaucracy is minimal. The turnaround time is short.”
She argued that the issue of corruption is one which has to be addressed from the top down as those of higher social strata continually use their power to manipulate those at the lower level.
“It’s the higher level that breathes corruption, and then it flows down to the little man or those who are marginalised. It shouldn’t be a case where you’ve graduated, there’s a job opening and you don’t stand a chance equal to that of someone who knows the boss or the member of parliament.
“Why place a vacancy in the paper, to have somebody apply for the post when you know you’ve already selected someone and the person won’t be successful? It’s corruption, and if we don’t rid the country of it, there’s no way we can succeed economically because those who are worthy and deserving have to know someone to get somewhere,” charged Ewers.
The educator argues that there is a need for the various oversight bodies to be more aggressive in their duties to ensure transparency and accountability, a sentiment shared by Duncan.
“Corruption comes up on all of the indicators and pain points for investors who want to invest in Jamaica. It’s prevalent in our society. We see it in our processes daily, and we have to address it in a structural way down to the root so that the ease of doing business and the people’s level of comfort in doing business in Jamaica will be improved.
“The oversight bodies have to be fearless in executing their responsibilities from the top down. They have to hold all members of the government, the private sector, and anyone who engage, with both, to account around following the rules and guidelines of our society,” said Duncan.
Source: The Gleaner

June 2017: Update on 3-year IMF Precautionary Stand-by Arrangement (PSBA)

The new Precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (PSBA) with the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) was approved by the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on November 11, 2016*. The GOJ met the indicative programme conditions for the IMF SBA as at end-March 2017.
The EPOC met on June 16, 2017, and reviewed the latest available results. Jamaica has met all structural benchmarks under the programme through end-May 2017. All of these measures have been provisionally met at end-April 2017.
*Based on the preliminary results for performance to date through the end of March 2017

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Briefing | Jamaica’s Macroeconomic Outlook For 2017-2018

HOW IS THE ECONOMY?

Jamaica’s macroeconomic indications have remained robust over the last nine months, displaying no overshooting or undershooting in response to global geopolitical and/or geo-economics occurrences. Prices (inflation) have remained stable on the books.
The exchange rate has depreciated by less than one per cent since the start of year, moving from $128.55 to $129.6 per US dollar. The Bank of Jamaica has indicated that from an assessment of preliminary Balance of Payments data, Jamaica’s current account recorded a deficit of US$29.8 million for the June 2016 quarter, an improvement of US$98.7 million relative to the corresponding period in 2015.
The improved estimate is because of a reduction in the value of what Jamaica purchases from the rest of the world and an improvement in the amount of services Jamaica sell to the rest of the world throughout that period. This they believe will continue trending downwards, given that there is more alignment between the Jamaican dollar and its major international trading partners, namely the US, Pound, Yuan and Canadian.

WHAT IS THE INTERNATIONAL PERCEPTION?

According to the World Bank: “The reform programme being implemented in Jamaica is beginning to bear fruit: Institutional reforms and measures to improve the investment climate have started to restore confidence in the Jamaican economy. The country’s credit rating has improved, and Jamaican bonds trade at a premium in international markets. Continued prudent macroeconomic policies and careful liability management reduced total government debt to 122 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by the end of 2016.”

WHAT ABOUT GDP GROWTH FORECAST?

The World Bank has estimated that the Jamaica economy grew by 1.7 per cent for the calendar year 2016 and forecasts two per cent growth for 2017, assisted by improved economic conditions in the United States, low oil prices, and investment reforms.
The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has indicated that the Jamaican economy recorded real GDP growth of 0.7 per cent per annum for the FY2013/14 and the FY 2015/16, the regular average for the country over the last 50 years.
According to the PIOJ, improved economic growth in the nation hinges on:
1. Continued implementation of Economic Reform Programme. “Since end March 2016, all Benchmarks and Quantitative Performance Targets have been met and economy on track to meet all targets.”
2. Implementation of additional legislative and regulatory reforms; over 50 legislative and regulatory reforms including tax incentives, credit bureaux, collateral registry, omnibus banking legislation have already been implemented.

WHAT ABOUT POVERTY AND UNEMPLOYMENT?

The latest unemployment statistics, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica, shows that the unemployment rate is approximately 13 per cent. Youth unemployment remains considerably higher for the youth, which is more than 28 per cent.
As it relates to poverty, the latest official estimates show that poverty headcount fell from 25 per cent in 2013 to 20 per cent in 2014. No recent poverty data is available to my knowledge.

WHAT IS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH THE IMF?

Recall that the Government of Jamaica holds a loan on standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as of November 2016. This is precautionary against unforeseen shocks that require foreign currency remedy.
The IMF conducted an interview with Nigel Clarke, Jamaica’s ambassador of economic affairs and deputy chair of the Economic Growth Council. Dr Clarke spoke about the nation’s priorities and new initiatives, the role of multilateral institutions in supporting economic reforms, and policies under way to raise growth, create jobs, and achieve better social outcomes.
Read the full Question & Answer at https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/09/na051017-jamaicas-econom…

WHAT ARE YOUR MAIN ECONOMIC PRIORITIES AS AMBASSADOR OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS FOR JAMAICA?

Our ambassador outlined that the nation’s key economic priorities are to maintain economic stability and supporting growth. He explained that, “It is important for Jamaica to continue implementation of the structural reforms required to entrench macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability while, at the same time, ensuring that economic expansion is given all possible support.”

WHAT MORE CAN JAMAICA DO TO SUPPORT JOB CREATION?

According to Dr Clarke, agriculture and business process outsourcing are the two main industries currently poised to absorb the most jobs in the Jamaican economy.
He said, “In the agricultural sector, the two key impediments are access to reliable water and a lack of strong linkages with the tourism sector.
To ensure that agriculture can grow sustainably, employing more Jamaicans, we will need to invest in water storage and distribution systems, and irrigation. But the Government doesn’t have the capacity to do this on its own, and will need to partner with the private sector.”
The agriculture sector absorbs 20 percent of the working force of the island; however, it contributes five per cent GDP. Therefore, with the emergence of Cannabis Indices globally, Jamaica can see this as a perfect opportunity for a greater and sustainable input into the economy coming from the agriculture sector.
Overall now more than ever, Jamaica is in the best position to maintain stability, increase growth and continue gradually improving infrastructure and social services necessary to transform into a developed nation.

Source: The Gleaner

Get to know the 3 oversight committees that monitor the PSBA

The Government of Jamaica (GOJ), shortly after signing the Precautionary Standby Arrangement (PSBA) with the International Monetary Fund, announced that there would be a tripartite monitoring mechanism will oversee the agreement.
The three oversight bodies that monitor the structural benchmarks and other commitments under the PSBA are the Public Sector Transformation Oversight Committee (PSTOC), Economic Growth Council (EGC) and Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC).
The EGC and PSTOC were created in 2016 to join the three-year-old
These three committees provide important oversight to ensure that the Jamaican economy progresses.
EPOC in monitoring and reporting on macroeconomic imperatives, Jamaica’s economic and financial policies and strategies.
PSTOC monitors implementation of the public sector transformation, public bodies, public service reform and the social safety net.
The EGC tracks measures specific to growth policies, which include some of the EGC’s recommendations that have been accepted, as set out in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) as agreed with the IMF, as well as the monitoring of growth outcomes.
EPOC monitors implementation of the fiscal, monetary and quantitative performance targets as set out under the MEFP. The measures that EPOC monitors are related to tax policy, tax administration, customs administration, public financial management and debt management.
The three bodies report their findings on the macroeconomic performance of Jamaica’s economy through press briefings, social media and advertisements.